Zimbabwe's dry season ahead: the solutions already exist
A dry season is coming
Zimbabwe is bracing for a hard season. Regional forecasters expect a very strong El Niño, and government has told the nation to prepare for below-normal rainfall from October 2026 to March 2027, with long dry spells and higher temperatures. The Meteorological Services Department puts the chance of below-normal rainfall at 65%.
For a country that lives off its land, this is serious. Most of our farming depends on rain, not irrigation. The memory of 2023/24 is still fresh: that El Niño brought the worst drought in 40 years, and government mobilised 328,000 tonnes of grain to feed 6.5 million food-insecure people.
Smallholder farmers carry the greatest risk. For them, a failed crop is not just a lost harvest. It means hungry households, distress sales of livestock, and livelihoods that take years to rebuild.
No need to reinvent the wheel
As farmers search for answers, they do not have to start from scratch. Lower rainfall will feel new to many. But it is not new to Zimbabwe.
In a normal season, Natural Region I in the Eastern Highlands receives more than 1,000mm of rain. Natural Regions IV and V in the lowveld receive less than 650mm. For farmers in much of Masvingo, Matabeleland and the lowveld, the "abnormal" season others now fear is simply normal.
That should bring comfort, and it points to a strategy. Generations of farmers in our driest regions have learned what to plant, when to plant and how to manage scarce water. Researchers have built on that knowledge for decades. The task now is to move these solutions from the places where they are routine to the places that will need them this season.
Dryland farming is an established science
Farming with little rain is not guesswork. Dryland agriculture is a mature science, and one of its global leaders has long been at home in Zimbabwe.
I serve on the Governing Board of ICRISAT, the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics. ICRISAT works for the 2.1 billion people who live in the world's drylands. Its regional research hub and genebank sit at Matopos Research Station, just outside Bulawayo, serving all SADC countries.
ICRISAT came to Matopos in 1983, at the request of SADC Heads of State, through the SADC/ICRISAT Sorghum and Millet Improvement Programme. That is more than four decades of research, on our own soil, into what grows when the rains fail.
Solutions already on the shelf
Start with small grains. Sorghum and millets are built for dry conditions. They tolerate heat, need less water than maize, and still yield when the rains stop early. Pearl millet does well on sandy soils with little rain. Finger millet stores for years with little pest damage. They are also nutritious: ICRISAT is breeding iron-dense pearl millet varieties for Zimbabwe's arid and semi-arid areas.
These are not untested ideas. By 2025, ICRISAT and its national partners had released 10 sorghum, 5 pearl millet, 8 groundnut and 2 chickpea varieties in Zimbabwe. ICRISAT works in close collaboration with the Department of Research and Specialist Services (DRSS), including its Crop Breeding Institute, to speed up trials and release hybrids, and with seed companies to get them to farmers.
How farmers plant matters as much as what they plant. Conservation agriculture, which makes careful use of water, fertiliser and seed, has raised cereal yields by 50 to 200% in more than 150,000 Zimbabwean households over 15 years. Pfumvudza/Intwasa builds on the same principles. Linking crops with hardy livestock such as goats also spreads the risk further.
What government and partners can do now
To be sure, farming practices take years to change. But as climate change makes extreme weather more frequent, preparing farmers for this new reality must start now.
The solutions exist. What is missing is speed and scale. Government and development partners can accelerate the transfer of these technologies in three ways.
- Put small grains in the seed subsidy. Input support should cover sorghum and millet seed alongside drought-tolerant maize varieties, especially for farmers in the drier regions.
- Back public extension. Extension officers are how new varieties and practices reach farmers. A well-funded rotation programme for extension officers can transfer best practices across agro-ecological regions.
- Fund the pipeline. Development partners can finance seed multiplication of released varieties and link farmers to buyers, so small grains are worth growing and selling.
The rains may fail this season. Our response does not have to. Zimbabwe's driest regions, and drylands across the world, have long shown how to farm under these conditions. It is time to learn from them.
Ed Mabaya is a Professor of Practice in the Ashley School of Global Development and the Environment at Cornell University and a member of the ICRISAT Governing Board.